There is an old saying: the market is not the economy, and the economy is not the market. It’s true – kind of. Financial markets and the economy are delicately intertwined, but knowing the direction of the economy doesn’t mean you can predict the direction of financial markets. For instance, the historical correlation between changes in US GDP and changes in the S&P 500 is near zero. The same can be said for predicting the outcomes of elections and geopolitical events in advance; it simply isn’t enough.
The problem is that financial markets are forward-looking and complex. They are “discounting machines.” If stocks trade at rock-bottom valuations, they are likely pricing in bad news (like a recession), and it is plausible they won’t correct if that bad news comes to bear, and vice versa. The same can be said for bonds. It’s not enough to know what the economy will do or who will win an election; you must also understand what is being discounted.
Even then, it may not be enough.